“American oil production is up by more than 600,000 barrels a day ... American natural gas production is at an all time high because I kept my promise to drill, baby, drill.”

The cause he claims does not fit the drilling data. Baker Hughes counted 41 fewer active U.S. rigs in February 2026, 7% below a year earlier, as lower oil prices pushed companies toward shareholder returns and paying down debt rather than more output.

The production figures are real but framed generously. EIA monthly data show crude output rose from 13,167 thousand barrels a day in January 2025 to 13,810 in December 2025, about 643,000, but only about 280,000 above December 2024: the 600,000 figure holds only against the January 2025 dip. Natural gas production did reach a record. EIA said 2025's growth followed four years of rising crude output, a trend under way before he took office.

EIA's September 2026 outlook puts 2025 crude output at 13.7 million barrels a day and projects 13.8 million in 2026, reversing its December 2025 forecast of a small decline.

Reuters, citing Baker Hughes, February 20, 2026: the U.S. rig count was "down 41 rigs, or 7% below this time last year."