“Gas prices will go down very quickly once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.”

Multiple speeches throughout the Iran war

Trump has been promising quick relief for months while gas prices moved relentlessly in the other direction. The national average jumped nearly 40 cents in a single month, from $4.06 to $4.39 a gallon by early May, and reached about $4.56 by late May. As of May 20, all 50 states averaged above $4 a gallon, with seven states topping $5. The promise rests on a reopening that keeps not happening. The Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed under a "dual blockade" through May 2026, and the White House's own top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, was still predicting in late May that shipments would resume in "a month or two," the same ever-receding timeline the administration has offered since spring.

Even a reopening would not bring prices down "very quickly." The Energy Information Administration projects Brent crude holding around $106 a barrel through June, with global oil inventories drawing down 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and energy analysts say prices are set to stay high across 2026 even if the war ends, since clearing mines and restoring shut-in Gulf production will take months.