“I predicted Iran would use the Strait of Hormuz as a weapon, and I predicted our allies wouldn't help us in times of need.”

Trump didn't predict the Hormuz closure. He dismissed his own military's warning about it. In briefings before the February 28, 2026 attacks, the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned Trump that striking Iran could prompt closure of the Strait of Hormuz; Trump waved it off, telling his team Iran would likely capitulate instead. Iran announced the strait "closed" on March 4.

The actual predictions came from named experts and from Iran itself, before the war. Arta Moeini of the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy warned in February 2026 of "the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to precipitate a global energy crisis"; Chatham House's Sanam Vakil predicted attacks on "US bases, shipping lanes and Israeli cities"; and Iran's UN ambassador declared in a February 19 letter that all hostile "bases, facilities, and assets" in the region would be legitimate targets.

Trump's own words destroy his claim of foresight. At the very same March 16 events where he boasted "I predicted all of it," he said of Iran's strikes on Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait: "Nobody expected that. We were shocked." CNN's fact check documented that he cannot have both predicted the retaliation and been shocked by it, and the contemporaneous record shows he predicted none of it.

"Iran said it was going to do it. I expected it. Everyone who follows Iran to any extent expected it." — Alan Eyre, former State Department official and Middle East Institute fellow, responding to Trump's claims